We're delighted to host Yimin Xu's premium service, YX Insights.
Welcome to YX Insights!
YX Insights brings you ++actionable investing and trading ideas++ in:
- Income Producing Instruments – including US Treasury ETFs, fixed income funds and Business Development Companies (BDCs)
- Equities – including mega-cap tech, financials (banks, asset managers, exchanges, payments companies)
- Crypto – selected crypto stocks and coins
We produce both short-term trade setups (4-week to 12 months) and long-term outlooks (1-5 years) for every covered instrument. We deploy a multi-model approach in evaluating every instrument, such as comparable valuations, discounted cash flow modelling, liquidity analysis, and Elliot Wave technical analysis.
Our work is different to the crowd. Because our work begins with the bond market – actually the interest rate markets. Why? While the equity markets make a lot more noise, the bond market is like the equity market’s big brother, in both size and importance.
Equities pricing is heavily influenced by the relative price of money at a particular point in time. This is something controlled by the Fed as well as the forward expectations of the interest rate markets.
By understanding the price of money – which we do through our institutional-grade analysis of the interest rate markets – we bring a differentiated perspective to equities and crypto analysis.
Not understanding how the Fed's decision process impacts equities and crypto pricing is a major blind spot for many investors and traders. This is one of the reasons that so many investors – from the smallest to the largest – have been wrong-footed by markets in recent years. Trying to understand equities with a narrow focus on earnings, valuations and so forth has led to many missed opportunities.
- What caused the market shock on Sunday 4th & Monday 5th August this year? The rapidly tightening 10Y US vs JP Treasury spread squeezed the carry traders on both their returns and funding costs. Could you have known about this ahead of time? You could, if you knew to watch these indicators.
- Why did equities rocket upwards in 2020-21 despite a global recession in the wake of a pandemic? Because the price of money was at a historic low and the supply of money was at a historic high.
- Why did equities sell off so brutally in 2022? Because the price of money increased at an unprecedented rate, and the supply of money contracted at the same time.
- Why did equities move up in 2023 and 2024? Because improving expectations of the future supply and price of money drove up asset prices and real spending in the real economy.
If you understand rates and bond markets, you have an edge in equities, simple.
Our focus is on bringing you that edge.
In addition to our actionable ideas, we share with our subscribers extensive in-depth US macroeconomic analysis including key economic data, macro patterns, market liquidity and seasonality, FOMC decisions, the yield curve, and selected macro-linked commodities.
This analysis is geared toward helping you make better investing decisions. The underlying work may be complex but our presentation is simple, actionable and delivered in a way that any investor can understand.
The service takes a subscriber-first approach to original, institutional-grade analysis. I host weekly webinars and answer thoroughly any questions you may have either in Slack or comments. No question is trivial – even the simplest of questions or comments usually leads to a valuable discussion and better-quality work.
YX Insights leverages my institutional trading experience as an FX Swaps and Interest Rates trader, as well as my financial expertise as a Chartered Accountant. I aim to guide our community away from superficial media analysis and talking heads. I break down complex jargon and concepts and connect the dots between rates and stocks.
Of course, Rome is not built in a day. As we start our journey in building out the full service, I am offering an early-bird discount that you can take full advantage off. As we quickly add more coverage and functionality, the price will rise in reflection.
Today, you just need to pay:
- Monthly Subscription: $95 per month
- Annual Subscription: $795 per year (a 30% discount)
Subscriber Comments On My Published Work
“I really love your reports, crystal clear and dead on accurate, they provide context and rationalization that is spot on.” - June 2024
“Refreshingly sober and rational analysis.” - May 2024
“Thanks for the reasonable, rational note in a sea of generally over-the-top hype or all-out fear-mongering.” - February 2024
“As always, solid logic with some humor. Pay attention to facts and skip the hopium.” - July 2023
“Thank you for revisiting the explanation of T bond issuance, Yimin; it is much easier to understand this version..” - June 2023
“Wow! Illuminating as always. ” - May 2023
“Such an Excellent explanation, thank you. I knew most of this myself but most people haven't a clue as to what this is, all about. It is a great public service to try and educate so many on what this truly is, I applaud you sir!” 22 May 2023
Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 12 August 2024.