Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q4 FY12/23 Earnings Review

Image source: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

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Two risks for TSM stock

There are two risks to TSM stock in our view and they are:

- The annexation of Taiwan by China, and/or

- A major decline in sentiment for stocks generally

Otherwise the stock can keep moving up in our view. This is one of two, maybe three at-scale semiconductor fabrication companies worldwide (the others being Intel in the US and SMSC in China). If global GDP is reasonably healthy then annual spend on semiconductors rises and with that so too does the revenue opportunity for the manufacturing services players. With so little competition and such a big technical lead over the other two competitors - Intel is making headway with its small-node production as is SMSC but they remain laggards - we don’t see material competitive threat eating into TSM margins or growth. So it’s all about the macro questions for us.

Numbers, valuation and chart below.

Fundamentals

Technicals

We continue to rate at Hold as the stock moves through our Markup Zone. You can open a full page version, here.

Any questions, remarks, suggestion- post a comment below.

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Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 20 Jan 2024