SignalFlow AI

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Introduction - Real Simple AI.

by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc

We are delighted to host SignalFlow AI, a family of very simple trade signal services based on a quantitative analysis model developed by Jay Urbain, Ph.D.

The basis of SignalFlow AI is very simple. What if you could use a machine to take the fear and emotion out of investing and trading? A machine that is tasked with pursuing upside, but which is unemotional about how to do so when market conditions change?

This is a task which human investors and traders should be able to do, but usually don't, because emotion - greed and/or fear - takes control of their trade execution, often in a manner at odds with perfectly sensible analysis that they just prepared.

SignalFlow AI uses machine learning and extensive backtesting to identify periods where the model believes markets are stable to the upside (ie. ‘bull market’ conditions), stable to the downside (ie. ‘bear market’ conditions), or unstable (ie. choppy conditions with no clear direction).

We provide three services arising from this same quantitative analysis.

Long Only

• SignalFlow AI For $SPY provides a simple S&P500 ‘Risk On’ / ‘Risk Off’ signal daily at the close. A ‘Risk On’ signal means the model believes the S&P500 is not at risk of a material selloff; the implication being that the $SPY ETF can be bought or held. A ‘Risk Off’ signal means the model believes the S&P500 is at risk of a material selloff; the implication being that it believes owning cash is preferable to owning $SPY.
• SignalFlow AI For $QQQ provides a simple Nasdaq-100 ‘Risk On’ / ‘Risk Off’ signal daily at the close. A ‘Risk On’ signal means the model believes the Nasdaq-100 is not at risk of a material selloff; the implication being that the $QQQ ETF can be bought or held. A ‘Risk Off’ signal means the model believes the Nasdaq-100 is at risk of a material selloff; the implication being that it believes owning cash is preferable to owning $QQQ.

With the obvious rider that future results may be different to the past, here's the 10 year backtested result of using a strategy based on the SignalFlow AI model to decide when to buy, when to hold, and when to sell $SPY, vs. simple buy-and-hold.

And here's the same for the $QQQ.

If you look at the charts you can see the outputs of the model very clearly. When the market weakens, sell and move to cash. When the market strengthens, redeploy that cash. Rinse and repeat.

Long / Short

SignalFlow AI Long/Short provides a signal service, once daily at the close, stating which of the following ETFs the model believes is the most compelling to own:

• SPY (long S&P500)
• SH (short S&P500)
• QQQ (long Nasdaq-100)
• PSQ (short Nasdaq-100)

The model also considers when it believes it is best to own cash (ie. none of the above ETF positions).The goal of the model outputs is to enable investors to not just avoid, but to benefit from any periods of market weakness - in addition to benefitting from periods of market strength.The backtested returns in the last ten years, shown here, illustrate the benefits of this approach.

Testimonials From Paying Subscribers

"I am wildly thrilled with SignalFlow AI for $SPY! I have been following the signals and moved almost completely to cash with the most recent change to risk off. Absolutely incredible for me, mentally and financially. Thanks so much to the team for developing this service.” - April 2025

“The long/short service paid for itself in one day overnight by the way! Thankyou.” - April 2025

“Rather than a day that could have ruined the weekend, I was able to watch the market tank knowing that I had the knowledge to weather the storm and come out far ahead.” - April 2025

Choose Your Service Tier

We offer this service family with two pricing tiers - Investment Professional and Independent Investor.

Investment Professionals

If you’re an investment professional - as defined in our terms and conditions, here, then choose from the “SignalFlowAI Pro Edition” services. You’ll pay $2499/yr or $299/mo per ticker for each of the long-only services. You can choose SPY (the S&P500 ETF) and/or QQQ (the Invesco Nasdaq-100 ETF). The long/short service is $4999/yr or $699/mo.

Note that this is a single-user subscription. If you require multi-user subscriptions please contact us at minerva@cestriancapital.com to discuss discounted multi-user pricing.

Independent Investors

If you’re not an investment professional under our terms and conditions, choose “SignalFlow AI - Independent Investor”. This single-user subscription is for use only by independent investors - it is not available to investment professionals per our terms and conditions. Independent investors pay just $1199/yr or $149/mo for each long-only service, or $2499/yr or $349/mo for the long-short service.

Deep Dive

I want to turn this over to Jay himself now. Here's some background as to the original development of the SignalFlow AI quantitative model.

A Constantly Evolving, Growing Family Of Services

As with all our pay services, SignalFlow AI will expand in breadth and depth as time goes by. It will cover more tickers and different strategies. Join now to lock in your pricing - prices for the service will continue to rise for new joiners as the service evolves over time.

Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 2 April 2025