Marvell Technologies Q3 FY1/25 Earnings Review

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Here Comes The Flood

By Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc.

First of all, a big thankyou to our longtime contributor “FredFrog” for first bringing Marvell ($MRVL) to my attention in early 2023. Being old and wizened I knew the Marvell of old - a dominant supplier of hard disk drive controllers - but not the new. Marvell’s current product setup places it squarely in the way of a coming flood of capex, driven by yes you guessed it, AI.

To deliver AI computing in the datacenter you need GPU cycles and you need power and cooling. This much has already reached the mind of the investing public, hence boomage in $NVDA, $VRT and others. But then you need a lot more capacity and speed and low latency everywhere downstream of the GPU, all the way to the client device. So that means that datacenter interconnect, storage, local- and wide-area networking componentry, systems and service - all this stuff has to be dragged into the Matrix Algebra Age.

MRVL is guiding to a major step up in growth next quarter, evidence I think of the coming flood. Capex like this will make its way to other vendors too, and you see that in the generally positive response from across the semiconductor sector to MRVL’s print today. (Intel is dancing to its own tune as you know).

Here's the headlines. Note that EBITDA and cashflow are depressed by a large one-time restructuring charge (and cash cost) and are likely to rebound quickly in the next 2-3 quarters.

Financial Summary

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