Market When Closed, Sunday 15 December
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Satoshi Claus
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
Just a week or so now until the holiday period; typically a bullish period in markets. I suspect we will see more volatility in 2025 than has been the case in 2023-24, so I wonder whether that will start to rear its head a little before time. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is comfortably above $100k once more and the chorus of "buy Bitcoin and HODL" is increasingly loud. My view on this is, this time it might be different, because in 2021 you didn't see any sovereign states talking about adding Bitcoin to their national assets, but I am cautious and as regards my own holdings in $IBIT (the world's most boring way to own Satoshis), I am continually moving up stops. One day I will get stopped out and then Bitcoin will reverse violently back up and I will have to decide what to do about that. But that is a small problem to have vs. the many buyers who genuinely believe that Number Only Go Up; there will be much pain amongst these people when the rug is, inevitably, pulled. I am not saying that Bitcoin cannot go higher - there's every reason it could reach absurd levels - I am saying that it is a highly volatile asset which generally does not ascend in a straight line. So, if you own Bitcoin, have a strategy, know what you will do if it moons or if it swoons, and keep a clear head about you.
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YX Insights. Where Grownups Go To Take Money From Degenerates.
Yimin Xu's YX Insights is a wonderful research service that we're delighted to host. I personally use his work a great deal in my own investing and trading. What I particularly like about YX Insights is that the service has helped me to make very good gains in stocks and ETFs on the fringes of the "Degenerate Economy" - specifically I am thinking of the BlackRock Bitcoin ETF, $IBIT, and of course the next-generation robotics and AI compute business $TSLA (nobody say "sedans"!). Yimin's work is purely technical in nature and pays no heed to the narrative of the day (which tends to be way too bullish or bearish for these kinds of names) nor to the somewhat lightweight fundamentals that underpin such stories. His work has given me the confidence to play highly speculative names in a risk-controlled way, with a series of successful gains banked and with risk controls always in place. I would encourage anyone who is both a grownup and interested in not missing out on "story stock" gains to take a look. I would expect Yimin to be no less successful in calling the downside of these stories when the inevitable rug pull comes.
Short- And Medium-Term Market Analysis
Don’t forget that to open full page versions of any of the charts below you can just click on the underlined header which titles each chart - they are all hyperlinks.