Market When Closed - Saturday 16 March
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Redemption or Recoil?
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
Friday the market was green in pre-market trading, opened green, closed green, and remained green in post-market trading. Remarkable, given the last few days of green in premarket followed by a relentless sell-down all day into deep red closing hours.
Economic news continues to reflect the evolving policy stance of the Administration and you would think that if the news has anything to do with price, markets would remain volatile and likely trend down once more next week, until at least until such time as clarity is reached on key policy principles. However. Usually price either runs ahead of the news or is entirely unrelated to the news; so as always we watch price not the headlines. Seasonality favors a move up into month end and so does the flow of liquidity. A time to react rather than to try to anticipate market changes I think.
Before I go - in machine world, nothing is known about invasions, tariffs, taxes, inflation, or anything else that isn’t a pure number. Which is why machines can be so useful in managing money - particularly in times when the wetware’s emotions are running high.
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Alex King
Short- And Medium-Term Market Analysis
If you want this daily dose of (human-authored) pattern recognition, and you aren’t yet a subscriber of course, you can read about and choose from all the subscription services that include this note, here.
US 10-Year Yield
The yield moved up Friday but did not make a new high on the week.
Equity Volatility
There’s the anticipated drop in demand for >30DTE S&P500 puts. A bullish look, all other things being held equal.
Disclosure: No position in volatility-linked securities.