Market On Open, Wednesday 16 April

Market On Open, Wednesday 16 April
Photo by rod m / Unsplash

DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.

China Crisis

by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc

The tariff saga continues with no apparent route to resolution. Stocks are proving remarkably resilient at index level but many single-stock names are now in the crosshairs. Boeing saw China orders canceled today (here) and Nvidia was told that export licenses will be required to sell their new Blackwell H20 product to the United States, a reversal of recent policy.

Technically speaking, equities look constructive to me, moving up off of the 7 April lows, but in the end there may be a number of blows of this nature that the bull cannot survive.

Next up is Q1 earnings and the thorny prospect of Q2 and FY25 guidance - likely to cause wild swings in stock prices and frustration amongst shareholders and managers alike.

Beyond that - let’s just see where markets stand right now.

Make It Easy On Yourself

Our SignalFlow family of quantitative signal services are built on the idea that the machine can help you avoid material drawdowns in the securities they cover. Right now this is in the S&P500 and Nasdaq-100 complex - we will be adding more categories soon.

Here’s three testimonials we received after the current market turmoil. The SignalFlow AI model declared “Risk Off” in the S&P on March 3rd; the index dropped some 15% thereafter since then - a drawdown the model could have helped you avoid if you were a member.

  • "I am wildly thrilled with SignalFlow AI for $SPY! I have been following the signals and moved almost completely to cash with the most recent change to risk off. Absolutely incredible for me, mentally and financially. Thanks so much to the team for developing this service.” - April 2025
  • “The long/short service paid for itself in one day overnight by the way! Thankyou.” - April 2025
  • “Rather than a day that could have ruined the weekend, I was able to watch the market tank knowing that I had the knowledge to weather the storm and come out far ahead.” - April 2025

The latest SignalFlow service provides long/short signals for the S&P500 and Nasdaq-100. This is a very easy to use service running on a quantitative model; complex below the waterline, simple above it. This is pure machine logic driven by price alone, not by the news, not by narrative, not by fear or greed.

Please do take a moment to read about what I believe to be a truly excellent service - here.

SignalFlow AI
DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing

Short- And Medium-Term Market Analysis

If you want this daily dose of pattern recognition, and you aren’t yet a subscriber of course, you can read about and choose from all the subscription services that include this note, here.

US 10-Year Yield

Equity Volatility

Down yes, crushed no.

Disclosure: No position in volatility-linked securities.

Now, for our paying subscribers we move on to bonds, the S&P500, the Nasdaq, the Dow, and key sectors.

Longer-Term Treasury Bonds (TLT / TMF)