Market On Open, Monday 8 July
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H2
by Alex King
The second half of 2024 begins in earnest today. Folks are back at work, CPI is on deck this week (Thursday at 0830 Eastern), and seasonality is likely to get choppy (personally my primary expectation is something along the lines of last year ie. a run up in July and then some weakness into early Q4 before a move up towards year end). It might be that we have a simple straight-up or straight-down market move in the coming months, but I don’t think so. I think late bulls are at risk in Q3, and I think jubilant bears may see a rug pull in early Q4. As always I think it pays to watch the prices in front of us, not to try to guess. For now, equities are up; bonds I don’t know, the recent spike in 10yr yields concerns me but I don’t feel like being short bonds; oil is heading up which is perhaps one reason there is weakness in bonds, meaning, perhaps rising oil prices are telegraphing inflation problems down the line. Tech stocks remain on fire, including a rotation into software which seems to have legs; energy names continue to trend sideways despite rising oil prices. (If you’ve yet to check in on our model portfolio updates, you can see them here - there’s no paywall in the link below).
Inner Circle and RIA Insight Pro - Model Portfolio Update
So Let’s Get To Work
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Read on!