Market On Open, Monday 3 February
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Magical Mystery Tour
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
If you can work out what the impact of mutual tariffs between the US & Canada, US & Mexico, “should” be on the 10yr yield, on Bitcoin, equities, oil, the Vix …. then you may be a superbly skilled individual - if that is these prices in fact move to the levels they “should be”.
I myself have no clue how to price market dislocations such as the DeepSeek $6m Capex Bomb nor the implementation of long-threatened tariffs between the US and some of its trading partners. Is this bullish for oil? Bearish for the Dow? I haven’t a clue, and I don’t believe anyone else does either.
The dirty secret here is that markets move to their own internal rhythm, and that even during shock and awe moments, the best guide to price is … where price was, over any given timeframe. Layer in volume and crosscheck across equities, bonds, oil, volatility and you have a framework that is actually useful for investing and trading. If price >x, long. If price <x, hedge 1:1 short or go net short. These daily notes lay out the framework to help you do this.
Read on!
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Short- And Medium-Term Market Analysis
If you want this daily dose of pattern recognition, and you aren’t yet a subscriber of course, you can read about and choose from all the subscription services that include this note, here.