Market On Open, Monday 23 September
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Opex In The Rearview
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
The nature of major securities markets is that they lurch from crisis to crisis, boom to bust, zero to hero, and back again. This isn’t because of the underlying nature of the issuers of the major securities - companies like Microsoft, Apple, United Health, JP Morgan and so forth are rock solid, relatively predictable businesses - it’s to do with the psychodrama that plays out all day every day in the minds of investors. Algos, you say? For now, humans program the algos. That won’t be forever; one day algos will write other algos, and in the end, there will be no wetware involved in the writing of trading algorithms whatsoever. At this point perhaps volatility will calm down; or perhaps it will get worse if the machine learns how to trick us emotional humans into wrong-way trading even more often than we manage all by ourselves!.
Today we have Q3 opex in the rear-view, which means the ginormo put positions owned by investors for expiry last Friday are all gone and market-makers are re-hedged accordingly. So perhaps we get a smoother ride for a little while, I don’t know.
Two things we can do to help in this regard, though.
Firstly, the charts we post here every day - the S&P500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones and Russell 2000 plus oil, bonds, volatility and key sector ETFs - can help you keep your head on straight whilst you trade short term and/or invest long therm.
Secondly, in October we will be launching a machine-learning driven signal service, SignalFlow AI, which will attempt to stay much calmer in its approach to the S&P500 and other things than do most participants. You can pre-register your interest in SignalFlow AI, here.
Righto. Let’s get into it.
Short- And Medium-Term Market Analysis
Now let's get to work. Below we cover bonds, oil, volatility, equity indices and key sectors. If you have any questions or comments you can reach us and our wonderful community 24x7 in our Inner Circle chat environment.