Market On Open, Monday 14 October
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Now Almost Everyone Is Bullish
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
The number of credible bear voices grows less by the day. You have your macro doomers who argue that the level of US sovereign debt is unsustainable, that inflation is coming back because the Fed cut rates too early, that the consumer is hurting, and that the party is going to end soon as a result. You have your chart jockeys who will tell you that if you start the clock at the end of 2018 then the current bull market is about to reach a technical high before reversing and heading towards the center of the Earth soon enough. Both these camps have, in the main, been saying this forever or at least since the 2021 highs; vindicated by the 2022 lows they have continued to peddle the same narrative which has been wrong for two years or so now but which could become right at any time because that’s how broken clocks work.
Right now anyone sensible is bullish and you only have to look at the morning color of the screen to know they are right.
Hm.
When everyone starts using terms like “no landing” and “the market can moon no matter who wins the election, because demographics”, whilst at the same time inflation is rising into a rate-cutting cycle and also into a labor-deflating cycle (another name for AI … all new generations of technology deflate the cost of labor and this is just the next incarnation thereof) … then I start to wonder whether we are approaching the it-can’t-fail stage.
Right now I personally remain bullish and am positioned accordingly, but this feels like a week when everyone thinks stocks will moon … this usually plays out differently! - so I shall be watching our charts closely as always.
Let The Machine Take The Stress Out
In case you missed yesterday’s post, I am delighted to announce our latest service, SignalFlow AI. Jay Urbain, Ph.D is running this service which uses proprietary machine learning techniques to identify bullish and bearish phases of the market, and provides simple output signals as a result. To begin with the service is focused on the S&P500. It provides AI-driven signals to buy, hold or sell $SPY based on its analysis and backtested logic. Backtesting which, I might add, suggests this is a very powerful method. We will add other big liquid tickers as time goes by.
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Short- And Medium-Term Market Analysis
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