Market On Open - Friday 7 March
DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.
Another Day In Paradise
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
A lot of ETFs and stocks of significance are sat right at their 200-day moving averages right now. This means that we’re likely to see extreme reactions. Either the 200-day lines in the sand hold, and algorithmic buying will push these names up towards their 50-day moving averages whereupon resistance will be encountered once more, or the line won’t be defended and automated selling will push these names a lot lower. It is very hard to say which. We have one piece of evidence in the bull camp this morning, which is the Broadcom earnings reaction:
$AVGO printed earnings yesterday after the close, and got a yikes-cat jump up off of its 200-day - for now. How the stock closes today is of great import not just to Broadcom but also to the semiconductor sector and therefore to the S&P and the Nasdaq. So this is a key chart to watch today. Here’s how it looks at 5am-ish Eastern:

Bullish for now.
Down here at the 200 day level is a tricky time for hedges. Should you release shorts here? Add to them? Catalysts today include those AVGO earnings, an NFP print, and a Chairman Powell speech. Truly an Anything Can Happen Friday.
Hedged long/short trading has been the gift that keeps on giving this quarter. Volatility is a real boon for this method.
If you’d like to learn how to trade long/short using the hedging method, I have three suggestions for you, in increasing order of cost.
Free:
- Follow Robert Balan on X - here.
Not-free:
- Long/short e-mini futures with Van, here
- Long/short ETFs and options with Gains, here
- Long/short Nasdaq, S&P, Dow, Bonds and Semiconductor, plus 80+ stocks under coverage, personal account trade alerts plus daily long form market analysis, live chat and weekly live webinars, here.
Let’s get into the weeds.
Short- And Medium-Term Market Analysis
If you want this daily dose of pattern recognition, and you aren’t yet a subscriber of course, you can read about and choose from all the subscription services that include this note, here.
If you’re thinking about joining our lower-cost Market Insight service, it’s a good idea to do so sooner rather than later. We’re going to be restructuring it for new subscribers so that it is split up into market analysis and earnings analysis, and we’ll be ramping up prices as a result. There will be no change for anyone who is a subscriber prior to the restructuring & price increase. So if you’ve been thinking about joining it, consider doing so now. (If you’re an Inner Circle or RIA Insight Pro service member, you don’t need Market Insight).