Market On Close, Monday 31 March
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Today’s Top Strategy: Go For A Walk
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
If you can’t find amusement in the market’s moves today then you are likely some combination of (1) doing it wrong and/or (2) overallocated and/or (3) overleveraged. Because, cmon:
This after the various end-of-the-road narratives swirling over the weekend, not least (1) the JP Morgan Hedged Equity derivatives package and its month-end effect (2) incoming "Liberation Day" on 2 April (3) all manner of other bogeyman stories explaining why the market is going to zero and soon.
If, knowing that "Liberation Day" was not today, and knowing that month-ends tend to be odd, particularly in Q1 after big moves in the prior quarter, you decided that today was likely to be merely performative, you may have elected to just walk the dog - yours if you have one, someone else’s if you don’t - and come back after the close. If so, congratulations - this was the smart move. Emotions intact and your account probably little changed since Friday, up a little if you had more bonds and oil, down a little if you had more semiconductor, but overall, a nothingburger, a veritable donut.
If the market is to remain in bull mode, April needs to be a rock solid performance I would say. A failed relief rally will indicate more and in my view significant lower lows ahead. As always in our work here we take it step by step, watching price not narrative and disregarding feelings.
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Alex King
Short- And Medium-Term Market Analysis
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US 10-Year Yield
Heading for 4.0% in my view.
Equity Volatility
Hit resistance during the day as put-buying cooled off.
Disclosure: No position in volatility-linked securities.