Macro Musings: A Detailed April CPI Preview
DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.
INTRODUCTION
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
Folks, there is a an awful lot of absolute garbage talked all over financial media of all kinds, both traditional and social, about inflation, rates, and the impact on equities. If you are at all interested in actual facts devoid of opinion and blather, I would urge you to read the Macro Musings series we publish here at Cestrian. I can say this because I don’t write them!! That credit falls to Yimin Xu, a former professional rates trader (translated - actually is qualified to comment and opine on this stuff, unlike virtually everyone else who comments and opines on this stuff). Yimin has written the Macro Musings notes for us for many years now and whilst I have never known him do anything other than great work, this piece today is particularly good. He takes a look at (1) what is actually driving inflation and therefore (2) what the data is likely to be on Wednesday this week when CPI prints and (3) then takes a look at what has driven the equity rally since 19 April, which by the way does not appear to be renewed confidence in rate cuts.
If you’re a paying member of our Inner Circle or Market Insight services, scroll down right away to read the note. If you’ve yet to join as a paying member (subscriptions start from just $29.99/mo), you can sign up from the links below. If you have any problems signing up, you can reach us using this contact form.
OK. So, over to Yimin!
CPI on Wednesday will be the highlight of this month
By Yimin Xu, May 13th, 2024
This is a painfully detailed CPI preview. If you are short on time, I will give you my finding summary here. However, if you read the entire article, you will also discover the true driver behind the recent Equity market’s not so “random walk”.