How To Win In Any Market (No, Really.)
DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.
It Just Needs The Right Research.
Making money in a bull market is difficult because stocks keep going up, and by the time you find the confidence to buy, they tend to start going down.
Making money in a bear market is also difficult because stocks keep going down, and by the time you find the confidence to sell, they tend to start going up.
This isn't a coincidence. Market price behavior is designed this way.
And this isn't "just you". The "average investor" underperforms a simple buy & hold of the S&P500 by some way.
It's also not "just retail". Large numbers of investment professionals - be they fund managers or RIAs - missed the market turning from bear to bull in Q3 2022, missed it again in Q1 2023, but managed to get caught by the correction in Q3 2023. Then plenty more missed the bull in 2024 year to date, joining late, then found themselves surprised to be dunked by the correction that started in mid July.
It doesn't have to be this way.
We make no particular claim to greatness but we will say that if you use our investment research as designed, you ought to be able to make money in bull and bear markets alike. If you ask our subscribers, they'll tell you this is the case.
We offer three levels of pay service here. You choose the one to suit your needs; each has the same core principle of market-neutral returns, which is to say, each service is built ground-up to offer ways to make money in bull markets, in bear markets, in corrections, in counter-trend rallies, you name it.
Market Insight is our basic offer. It's $399/yr or a monthly equivalent. You receive a daily note laying out where we think the S&P500, the Nasdaq-100, the Dow Jones 30 and the Russell 2000 may be headed in the short- and medium- term. You can use this to navigate markets with ETFs, options, futures, whatever you choose. The same note includes similar analysis of US government bonds, oil, and sector ETFs. It gives you some commentary as to why we think what we think, what might work if we're correct, and if we're wrong, how to react. Market Insight also gets you earnings review notes on each and every one of the typically 60-80 stocks we cover at any one time, together with price targets, ratings, and risk management strategies. Want to sign up for Market Insight? Click the button, and choose "Market Insight" at checkout.
RIA - Insight Pro is built for RIAs who wish to grow their Assets Under Management. (We'd like to meet the RIA that doesn't want to do this). The service recently launched. It's $499/yr or monthly equivalent right now. This price will rise on 1 August. RIA - Insight Pro gets you the daily market note and the earnings notes from Market Insight, but it also gets you model portfolios using simple common stocks and/or unleveraged ETFs - the portfolios are based on sector rotation and are designed to help you grow AUM, ideally in excess of the rate of growth of the S&P500, all the while being able to point to the simple instruments used which means you can explain happily to your clients why their capital is in these instruments. Are your clients scared of or worried by owning Exxon Mobil or Lockheed Martin or the like? We thought not. Do they feel antsy if they own XLU, the utilities sector ETF? Probably not. We show you how to use unrisky securities to achieve growth in AUM, using the rotation method. Sounds hard, isn't. Anyone can do it with (a) practice and (b) the right research at hand.
Here's what one of our RIA - Insight Pro subscribers said today (24 July - Nasdaq down around 3.6%, S&P500 down 2.2%):
"...my AUM look great thanks to your energy and defense up calls … trimmed tech 2 weeks ago to get thru 3rd quarter… your work is appreciated!"
Inner Circle is our best work. It can be and is used to great effect by any investor or trader, whether you manage $100bn of pension funds or $50k-worth of brokerage account. It brings you all the above from RIA Insight Pro, plus real-time trade disclosure alerts whenever Cestrian staff personal accounts place trades in covered stocks and/or ETFs; plus real-time chat 24/7 if you want it in our Slack environment - you can always reach our analysts and our community there, on your computer, phone, anything. It gets you a real-time live ask-us-anything webinar once per week. And it gets you continuous and extensive education as to how to hedge in real time and how, in real time, to take advantage of changing market conditions. Here's a comment we got today in chat -
"First time I'm making money from being short. Love it!"
So. Here’s what to do if you want to try our work. Hit the button below. Choose your service tier (Market Insight, RIA - Insight Pro, or Inner Circle). We provide a 7-day free trial on Market Insight; and you should know that RIA Insight Pro and Inner Circle will both have substantial price rises 1 August. Sign up in what remains of July to lock in our current low prices.
Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
24 July 2024.