ExxonMobil Q4 FY12/24 Earnings Review

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If Inflation, Then Oil; If Oil, Then $XOM

As the Fed has now declared tariff inflation to be transitory in nature, we now know we don’t have to worry about that too much. Just like Covid stimulus inflation was transitory in nature. Phew! Glad this is going to be a nothingburger.

That said, on the offchance that tariffs do lead to a spike in inflation, one could be forgiven for looking for some ways to benefit from that. We can assume that bonds and high-beta stocks will get hurt, and we can assume that the equity indices won’t love it either. But energy? Energy should do just fine.

Plenty of energy sector names look like they are preparing to put in a bull move at present. Here’s $USO for instance. (You can open a full page version of this chart, here).

Anything can happen of course, but it looks like USO has a chance of exiting that range compression to the upside.

Here’s $XLE. (Full page version, here).

Stocks tend to move with their sectors, all other things being equal, so it is in this context that I think one should consider $XOM.

Let’s take a look.