EQT Q3 FY12/24 Earnings Review

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Choose Your Own Ending

We rated $EQT at ‘Accumulate’ between $28-44/share; the stock closed Friday at $53/share, up some 20% from the top of our ‘Accumulate’ range and up over 80% from the bottom of that range.

You can open a full page version of this chart, here.

You can see that the stock has broken out. With a fair wind behind it I believe the name could hit around $57, that being the 1.618 extension of the Wave 1 up placed at the Wave 2 low of the timeframe shown.

Whether you choose to hold from here is a riskier bet, in my view, than when the stock was trending sideways, rangebound, in the Accumulation Zone. Breakouts like this can be played to the long side by skilled momentum traders, using stops or other risk management techniques, but if you have followed Wyckoff principles, been patiently building a position in that rangebound Accumulation zone, risk is now on your side; you can take gains and relax, then rotate the capital into some other opportunity which remains under accumulation.

Personally I tend to sell names like this whilst they are still in the Markup Zone ie. during the momentum breakout. It means I often miss the highs, but it means I can harvest gains with regularity in order to then rotate the capital back into something more boring instead, then sit back and wait for the boring thing to break out, rinse and repeat.

Here’s the numbers and valuation.

Full financials:

Formally speaking we rate the name at Hold, because the stock remains below that 1.618 extension, but again, the risk to long positions is rising not falling in my view. You will make your own decision as always.

Alex King, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 20 January 2025.

DISCLOSURE - Some Cestrian Capital Research, Inc staff personal accounts hold long positions in EQT at the time of publication.