Autodesk Q4 FY1/24 Earnings Review

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Technicals Made Me Sell, Fundamentals Made Me Glad I Did

by Alex King

Autodesk (ADSK) is a long-established software business, founded in San Francisco, CA in 1982 and now based in San Rafael, CA. The company sells computer-aided design software to multiple vertical markets, from construction to movies. The company is a long-run grower, and the stock has followed suit. Here's the stock vs. the S&P500 in the last thirty years, on a total return basis (ie. dividends re-invested).

Personally, I opened a new position in Autodesk stock in July 2023 - the stock was in our Accumulation Zone at the time - and I sold last week right after earnings. That may prove to have been too cautious, we shall see. I sold without having looked at the earnings print - the stock reached a typical Wave 3 high in the post-market session - but having seen the fundamentals I am happy to have taken profits.

We'll get to those charts below, but for now, here’s the headline numbers as of this quarter.

In short:

• Revenue growth ticked up a little this quarter, 11% vs PY for the quarter and +10% vs PY on a trailing twelve month basis.
• TTM EBITDA margins have been stable at 36-37% for a year or so.
• TTM unlevered pretax free cashflow declined quite a bit, from +55% margins in the April 2023 quarter (that's unusually high for a company of this type by the way) to +30% in this quarter (which is unusually low).

Let's turn to the stock price outlook, more detailed financials, valuation analysis, and our rating.

Read on!